Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Summit 2026, Baig’s outlook centred on 2 significant styles: the strength of international trade in spite of geopolitical interruption, and a shift in the centre of technological development from West to East.
1. Do not error unpredictability for financial weak point
Baig’s very first message was fairly positive: “It’s not that bad.”
He indicated the succession of financial and geopolitical shocks over the previous 6 years, from the COVID-19 pandemic and wars to inflation, rates of interest walkings and trade stress, which especially consisted of Trump’s tariffs and disturbances due to the Middle East dispute.
He argued, these disturbances have actually not equated into the serious and extended financial recessions that had actually consistently been feared.
“When inflation skyrocketed in 2022 and 2023, the view was that we ‘d have the mom of all rate-hike cycles. It was going to bring need crashing down through the flooring and we ‘d have a worldwide anxiety and economic downturn. Never the case. We took the inflation, we took the high rate of interest, we continued growing, which’s the test of our strength,” stated Baig.
“Consider international development over the last 6 years in spite of all of the things– pandemic, Russia war, Ukraine war, Iran war, mutual tariffs. International development has actually stayed above 3% through this whole time.”
He likewise indicated the relative stability of international food rates over the previous 6 years, keeping in mind that genuine food rates have actually stayed mainly the same regardless of wars and durations of food insecurity.
“How do you believe the genuine food cost index has developed in the last 60 years? It hasn’t. It’s absolutely no. In the last 60 years, the genuine cost of food has actually increased by 0%. Sixty years of wars and catastrophes and food insecurity, all that things consisted of. Our farmers, our innovations, have actually offered us with remarkable services. We feed the world extremely well,” stated Baig.
This does not imply customers are paying the very same rates for food as they did 60 years earlier. Genuine food costs represent inflation, indicating the figures are adapted to show modifications in the basic rate level with time. To put it simply, small food rates might have increased, however their inflation-adjusted worth has actually stayed reasonably steady.
For food and drink organizations, the message is not that geopolitical dangers can be neglected, however that international trade and food supply chains have actually shown a capability to stand up to considerable disturbance.
International development: How durable has the economy been?
The international economy has actually weathered a number of significant interruptions over the previous 6 years, although the pandemic triggered a sharp contraction in 2020.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
2020: Global GDP contracted by 2.7% in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.
2021: Growth rebounded by 6.7% as economies resumed.
2022– 2025: Annual worldwide development stayed in between 3.3% and 3.8%.
2026: Growth is predicted at 3.1%.
While the healing has actually not lacked difficulties, the figures highlight how international financial development has actually held up following the pandemic-induced decline and subsequent geopolitical and inflationary shocks.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
2. It’s not everything about expert system (AI)
Baig argued that worldwide trade development is not exclusively depending on the AI boom. While electronic devices trade has actually broadened quickly, he recognized 2 other significant development chauffeurs: the green shift and pharmaceuticals.
Need for batteries, photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, and electrical lorries has actually risen, while pharmaceutical exports from nations consisting of Singapore, South Korea, and China are likewise taking advantage of growing trade.
“It’s not everything about AI,” Baig stated, including that even if the AI cycle were to fail tomorrow, worldwide need associated to pharmaceuticals and the green shift might would stay undamaged.
For food services, these advancements deserve enjoying as they might develop chances around more energy-efficient production, food innovation and the crossway of food and health.
Baig’s more comprehensive point was that Asia’s development is supported by a number of longer-term trade cycles, instead of depending on a single innovation boom.
3. Look beyond the United States
For business that have actually typically concentrated on the United States, Baig motivates them to think about “TOTUS”– trade outside the United States.
He anticipates tariffs to outlive the Trump administration and the competition in between the United States and China to continue.
“The United States is huge and substantial. You will need to have fun with the United States by United States guidelines,” he stated.
He worried that 96% of the world’s population and 92% of worldwide trade lie outside the United States, developing substantial space for companies to pursue chances in other places.
Baig stated worldwide sell both items and services had actually been broadening at rates going beyond the averages seen over the preceding years.
“Since April 2025, international sell both products and services has actually been growing at rates not seen in the previous years. In 2025, worldwide sell items grew by 160 basis points more than the previous years’s average, while international sell services grew by 300 basis points more than the previous years’s average,” Baig stated.
“You may argue that this was because of services frontloading exports since they were stressed over tariffs, which 2025 was an abnormality. That is not the case. We currently have 8 or 9 months of information for 2026, and we are on track to exceed the development records for worldwide sell both products and services embeded in 2025.”
This highlights the value of looking beyond the United States when thinking about export chances, especially as trade within and outside the Asian area continues to broaden.
4. Asia shifts from making to development
Baig stated that a “tectonic shift” is happening in the centre of gravity of technological development, moving from the West towards the East.
Pointing out research study organization rankings released annual by clinical journal Nature, he kept in mind China’s growing existence amongst the world’s leading clinical research study organizations, especially in used sciences.
“You may anticipate organizations such as Harvard, MIT and Stanford to lead these tables– incorrect. In the current Nature Institutional Ranking of the world’s leading 25 research study organizations and labs, 17 are from China, and just 3 American universities become part of this list,” stated Baig.
“If you take a look at Nature’s 2025 and 2026 rankings, consisting of the information as much as June this year, China controls the used sciences rankings. All 10 of the leading 10 organizations are Chinese. Stanford is ranked 38th and MIT 40th.”
Baig likewise indicated patent activity as proof of Asia’s growing development abilities.
“When we speak about Nobel Prizes and substantial clinical developments today, much of the work is still originating from labs and researchers in the United States, some in Europe and a couple of in Japan. I would argue that over the next 15 to 20 years, we will see numerous more Nobel Prizes coming not simply from China, however likewise from other parts of Asia,” Baig stated.
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) patent information likewise includes significant Asian development clusters.
According to WIPO rankings, the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou passage leads in patent clusters, followed by Tokyo-Yokohama, with Silicon Valley in 3rd location. Beijing and Seoul ranked 4th and 5th respectively.
This shows that China, Japan and South Korea are ending up being progressively crucial sources of clinical and technological development, challenging the conventional understanding of Asia mostly as the world’s production base while the West produces copyright.
For the food and farming markets, the ramifications might ultimately extend throughout locations consisting of biotechnology, food processing, automation, alternative proteins and farming innovation.
Baig’s last message was that the standard story of the West producing copyright while Asia works as the world’s production base is progressively out-of-date.
“The standard view is that the West produces the IP, while Asian employees put in long hours to produce ingenious items that the remainder of the world takes in. Those on the best side of the political spectrum may argue that this is how Asia takes Western tasks. Dear good friends,” he inserted gently, “That is so 2015, or perhaps 2005.”
The truth in 2026 is that essential copyright will significantly originate from Asia, with Korea, Japan, and China forming the structure of all the “earth-shattering, huge developments down the roadway”, Baig stated.
“Western development centers would stay substantial, however kid, do they have competitors.”
He stated that organizations need to start asking an extremely various concern about Asia: “The crucial IP will originate from Asia. Just how much are we going to spend for it?”
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