Pick Six: Patriots-Bears predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 7 picks and possible upsets

Hi football buddies, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

We had some huge news drop here at CBS Sports today: JJ Watt has actually signed a brand-new offer that formally makes him the lead expert in our No. 1 NFL cubicle with Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson.

The brand-new offer indicates that Watt will remain in the commentator’s cubicle for Super Bowl LXII next season. For those of you scoring in the house, that is just 479 days away.

Watt has actually been with CBS Sports considering that 2023, when he was worked with as a studio expert on “The NFL Today.” In 2025, he made the transfer to the commentator’s cubicle, where he coordinated with Ian Eagle and Evan Washburn. And now, he’s in the leading cubicle.

Not just does he squash it in the broadcast cubicle, however Watt is likewise an exceptionally amusing guy to follow on social networks, so I ‘d recommend you follow him on Instagram or even X

And now, let’s return to our regular newsletter company.

As constantly, here’s your day-to-day pointer to talk of your buddies to register for the newsletter. To get them registered, simply click on this link. Let’s get to the rundown.

1. Thursday night sneak peek: Picks and best options for Patriots at Bears

The Bears just have one Super Bowl win in franchise history, and it came by the Patriots back in 1985. The factor I’m bringing that up now is that the Bears will be honoring Mike Ditka tonight, and he was the coach of that 1985 group. This is the group’s very first home video game given that Ditka’s handing down Oct. 9, so the Bears will be commemorating his life. All the best, Patriots.

On the injury front, the Patriots are banged up entering into this video game, specifically on the offending line. They’ll be down 2 beginners with beginning guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Ben Brown both eliminated. When it comes to the Bears, they’ll be missing out on Kyle Monangai for the 3rd straight video game.

Now that we’ve got that out of the method, here’s one reason each group need to be feeling great entering into the video game:

• Why the Patriots can win: Given that the start of last season, no quarterback has actually been much better at tossing deep passes than Drake Maye. The Patriots QB has actually finished 56% of his passes and tossed 16 TD hands down tosses of 15 air lawns or more because period. Now, he gets to take on a Bears defense that has actually been the worst in the NFL at stopping long passes. Going back to the start of the 2025 season and through today, the Bears have actually ranked dead last in the NFL in conclusion portion on long passes and in goals permitted (17 ). If the Patriots get their long ball going this evening, they may be able to manage the upset.
• Why the Bears can win: This may be a scenario where the Bears can simply let the Patriots beat themselves. This video game is being played in Chicago, and the Patriots have actually been bad on the roadway this year. They’ve turned the ball over 8 times in simply 3 video games, with 6 of those beginning interceptions from Drake Maye. The Bears are 3-0 this season in any video game where they’ve required a turnover, so they require to be opportunistic tonight. It would likewise assist the Bears to get their running video game going. Just one group has actually topped 100 lawns on the Patriots this year, which was available in Week 3 when the Jags damaged New England 35-6. The Bears have the leading hurrying attack in the NFL, and if they get that going, it’s tough to see them losing this video game.

You can get a complete sneak peek of the video game from Jared Dubin by click on this link

If you’re thinking of banking on the video game, here are a number of props.

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: A.J. Brown OVER 5.5 receptions (+111 at DraftKings): In his go back to the lineup on Sunday, Brown got targeted 10 times, and we might see a comparable number in Chicago, provided the Patriots’ banged-up receiver space. Brown did uncharacteristically drop 3 passes versus the Jets on Sunday, and I need to believe he’ll wish to offset that, so I will not be shocked if he has a huge night.
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Andres Borregalas OVER 6.5 points (-125 at DraftKings): The Patriots have a high-powered offense, however they’ve had a hard time to score at a loss zone, ranking simply 18th in the NFL in red zone TD portion. That indicates there must be adequate scoring chances for Borregalas in this video game. The Bears have actually played 3 home video games this year, and the roadway kicker is balancing 7.3 points per video game in those 3 matches.
  

If you’re questioning how my props are doing this year, I’m 8-16 (3-9 on kicker props and 5-7 on all other props). After starting 5-3, I’m now 3-13 on my last 16 props. It has actually been a NIGHTMARE. This is all plainly an indication that you must be fading me up until additional notification.

And now, it’s time for some choices.

CHOICES FOR ‘TNF’

Jared Dubin’s choice: Bears 31-27 over Patriots
John Breech’s choice: Bears 27-20 over Patriots
Jordan Dajani’s choice: Bears 28-24 over Patriots
Tyler Sullivan’s choice: Bears 24-20 over Patriots
Prisco’s choice: Patriots 28-27 over Bears

If you wish to know which method all of our professionals are leaning this evening, you can inspect that out on our CBSSports.com chooses page.

2. NFL Week 7 choices: Browns enhance to 5-2, Chiefs upset Seahawks

Invite to the part of the newsletter where we give out choices. We have 5 NFL authors– Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself– distributing choices weekly. I have some huge news: For the very first time all season, Jared Dubin took home the weekly crown. I do not wish to moisten Dubin’s parade, however I’m quite sure the only factor he won is due to the fact that the rest people choked the week away. Prisco, Sullivan, and I all ended up under.500 for the week while Dajani went 8-6. We essentially GAVE Dubin today’s title. I will not be getting Dubin anything for the vacations. That is the only present he’ll be receiving from me this year.

Anyhow, if you’re brand-new here, here’s how things work: I’ll provide you one Week 7 choice from each author and after that direct you to the rest of their choices for the week. That method, if you like their choice, you can click over and take a look at all their Week 7 choices; if you dislike it, you can overlook the rest and carry on with your life.

• Pete Prisco– Bengals (+3) 24-23 over Ravens. From Prisco: “The Bengals are coming off a bye, while the Ravens are coming off a loss to the Browns. They could have Lamar Jackson back from an ankle injury here, which certainly changes things. Even if he’s back, I think Joe Burrow will have a big day throwing it. The improved Bengals defense will do the rest. Upset.” For the rest of Prisco’s Week 7 choices, make sure to click on this link
• Tyler Sullivan– Browns (-1.5) 24-17 over Titans. From Sullivan: “The Browns are … good? They pulled off an upset win over the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens last week and, remarkably, stand in first place in the AFC North heading into Week 7. Deshaun Watson has been clutch this season, as he has four game-winning drives where he’s been money. In that window, Watson has completed 75% of his passes (18-of-24), thrown for 179 yards, and has two touchdowns with zero interceptions. To his credit, Cam Ward has also popped in the fourth quarter this season as well, but Tennessee is also tied for the fewest points scored in the NFL over the first three quarters. If that persists, Cleveland has a defense capable of snuffing out any late Ward comeback attempt.” For the rest of Sullivan’s Week 7 choices, make sure to click on this link
• Jordan Dajani– Steelers 23-20 over Saints (+3.5 ). From Dajani: “The Steelers are impossible to figure out. From week-to-week — or even half-to-half, as evidenced by last week’s overtime victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you’re going to give me the hook at +3.5 in an international game, I’m probably going to take it. The Saints are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games away from home, and are 3-0 ATS all-time in international games.” Dajani’s complete slate of choices will be launched Friday, however you can get a sneak peek here
• Jared Dubin– Lions (-3) 34-28 over Packers. From Dubin: “This one has all the makings of a shootout, with two explosive offenses going back and forth. Jared Goff and Co. are coming off the bye, and they have scored 31 or more points in four of their five games to date — and they scored 26 while piling up 452 yards in the other one. Nobody except maybe Kenneth Walker III is doing it at a higher level than Jahmyr Gibbs right now, either. Meanwhile, Green Bay can throw the ball all over the yard, and everyone throws it on the Lions. Maybe Green Bay can actually run with some efficiency in Josh Jacobs’ potential return, but it’s not like he was all that efficient last season, either. I lean toward the Lions because they can beat you both ways.” For the rest of Dubin’s Week 7 choices, make certain to click on this link
• John Breech– Chiefs (+2.5) 27-20 over Seahawks. From me: “This is the Kenneth Walker revenge game. Walker is on a personal 15-game winning streak that dates back to last year: He won his final 10 games with the Seahawks, and he’s won his first five with Kansas City. All the man does is win, so I certainly will not be picking against him in this spot.” For the rest of my Week 7 choices, make sure to click on this link

For more Week 7 NFL choosesyou can take a look at our CBSSports.com selects page here.

3. NFL Week 7 upset alert: Three favorites who might decrease

We saw numerous huge upsets in Week 6, consisting of Arizona’s stunning win over the Rams and the Browns’ win over the Ravens. There’s absolutely nothing I enjoy more than a huge upset, so I’m hoping those stunning surfaces rollover into Week 7.

Who should be on upset alert this week?

Tyler Sullivan is here to inform us.

• Giants( +10.5 )over Texans. Invite to the J.J. McCarthy period in New York. I’m really curious to see how this chooses the previous Vikings first-round choice, who made his launching recently in the 4th quarter. Because short proving, McCarthy mostly played well, tossing for 243 backyards, a goal, and an interception. Does this provide the Giants an increase? McCarthy will have weapons at his disposal in Malik Nabers and Isaiah Likely, and it’s possible his hurrying capability sparks what has actually been an uninspired ground attack so far. The Texans will have a small rest downside here. While they might be home, Houston is fresh off a video game in London last Sunday, which might be a consider this contest.
• Falcons (+3) over 49ers. At some point, the injuries to San Francisco’s broad receiver space have to matter? When Mike Evans (Achilles) didn’t return for the 2nd half of Monday’s match versus the Commanders, the Niners offense summoned a basket on the opening belongings of the 3rd quarter and after that punted 3 straight times (all three-and-outs) to end the video game. With the Week 8 bye right in front of them and San Francisco playing on a brief week and on the roadway, it might behoove them to keep Evans sidelined for this video game, with hopes of a two-week break being the solution for the stretch run. If that ends up being the case, we got a fast sample of an Evans-less offense for the 49ers, and it wasn’t the most beautiful. That brings San Francisco down much closer to Atlanta’s level and makes them a live home canine.
• Cardinals (+4.5) over Broncos. It’s borderline reckless to back the Broncos today since their offense is absolutely lost. Bo Nix is balancing simply 4.9 air lawns per effort this season, which is the least through 6 video games by any gamer in the last 20 seasons. They won recently regardless of his efficiency and the defense making the most of some doubtful tosses by Sam Darnold. Now, they go out on the roadway to deal with a Cardinals group that has actually been pesky this season. Most just recently, they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense to 16 points in a roadway win.

You can take a look at Sullivan’s complete list of possible upsets for Week 7 here

4. Ranking first-year NFL head coaches: Todd Monken on the top

It’s been a wild year up until now for the NFL’s latest head coaches: Five of them are presently in top place or connected for top place, while among them presently has ZERO wins.

There were 10 coaches employed this offseason, and because we’re approximately one-third of the method through the season, Garrett Podell has actually chosen it’s time to rank how each coach is doing.

Here are the leading 3 names in Garrett’s ranking:

1. Browns coach Todd Monken. Monken is presently managing a wonder: His Browns remain in top place in the AFC North in Week 6 or later on for the very first time considering that 2014. That’s definitely amazing. There’s definitely a smoke-and-mirrors aspect to it, as the Browns have the worst point differential (-16) amongst groups with a winning record this season, however wins are wins.

2. Expenses coach Joe Brady. Brady has an unreasonable benefit amongst his class of 2026 head-coaching hires since he has actually been his group’s offending organizer because 2023. Quarterback Josh Allen leads the NFL in overall goals (17 ), and running back James Cook’s 627 backyards hurrying rank as the 3rd most in the NFL.

3. Ravens coach Jesse Minter. Acquiring two-time NFL MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson is a true blessing for brand-new Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter, however he hasn’t had him the last 2 weeks since of an ankle injury. In Week 5, Minter’s team went on the roadway in primetime and beat the Falcons on “Sunday Night Football” with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. The Ravens’ +24- point differential is the eighth-best in the NFL this season, and they have the very same record as the Browns and Steelers atop the AFC North.

In news that most likely will not shock you, Dolphins’ coach Jeff Hafley, who has ZERO wins up until now, is ranked at the bottom of the list. If you wish to see where all 10 coaches fall in Garrett’s ranking, you’ll need to take a look at his complete story here

5. NFL trade due date: Five gamers that require a modification of surroundings

Do not look now, however the NFL trade due date (Nov. 10) is simply around the corner. We began breaking down some possible trades more than 2 weeks back, and we’re going to continue that today by having a look at a couple of gamers who might utilize a modification of landscapes.

Generally, Jordan Dajani developed a list of 5 gamers who most likely will not be dealt, however we ‘d like to see them get moved.

1. Chargers QB Justin Herbert. The Chargers are 0-6, and there’s little hope this group can turn it around. Offending organizer Mike McDaniel is on the spot– the exact same might be stated for head coach Jim Harbaugh– and now, injuries are starting to install. If quarterback Justin Herbert could not figure it out with Ladd McConkey, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt healthy, what’s it going to appear like with all of them out/injured? Herbert requires a more comfy circumstance– possibly one that consists of a Brian Flores defense and Justin Jefferson.

2. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor, on the other hand, has actually acquired 655 skirmish backyards and 7 goals through the very first 6 video games of the season. He simply ended up being the fastest gamer to reach 8,000 profession hurrying lawns given that Adrian Peterson, and he must be bring the rock for a group with Super Bowl goals. (Note: If you’re questioning what groups may be thinking about trading for Taylor, we showed up with 5 various trade bundles here

3. Raiders EDGE Maxx Crosby. We believed Maxx Crosby got the modification of landscapes he wanted in March, when the Baltimore Ravens accepted send out 2 first-round choices to the Las Vegas Raiders for their star pass rush. The Ravens backed out of the offer after their physicians apparently discovered something uneasy throughout their in-person physical. I do not understand if Crosby still desires out of Vegas. Possibly he saw the canceled trade as magnificent intervention signaling he was constantly suggested to wear the silver and black. The Raiders are more competitive this year than they have actually remained in rather a long time, however I would still like to see Crosby on a winning group.

If you wish to see Jordan’s complete list of gamers who require to be traded, we’ve got that here

6. Additional points: NFL penalizes 3 head coaches with near-record fines

It’s been a hectic couple of days around the NFL, and because it’s almost difficult to monitor whatever, I assemble a fast roundup for you.

• NFL drops the hammer on 3 head coaches. Mike Vrabel, Nick Sirianni and Aaron Glenn have actually all been fined $250,000 by the NFL for their conduct towards video game authorities. They had to pay the fine, all 3 coaches have actually been informed that they can get their cash back if they reveal great habits going forward. The NFL is plainly attempting to send out a message: The fines given out are the second-largest in league history for any head coach, tracking just the $500,000 fine Bill Belichick got for Spygate. If you desire the complete story on these near-record fines, we’ve got all the information heretogether with some video of each coach chewing out an authorities.
• Giants rolling with J.J. McCarthy at QB today. After seeing McCarthy toss for 243 lawns in the FOURTH QUARTER versus the Saints on Sunday, John Harbaugh has actually seen enough. The Giants coach has revealed that McCarthy will not just begin today versus the Texans, however he’ll likely be the starter after that. “I would never say that anything is permanent in football or life. That’s the plan going forward,” Harbaugh stated. The Giants traded for McCarthy back on Sept. 28and now, less than a month later on, he’ll be getting his very first start with the group.
• Vice president goes to Bengals practice. JD Vance chose to come by Bengals’ practice on Wednesday after participating in a project rally simply north of Cincinnati. You can see a few of the video footage from his go to hereVance is a veteran Bengals fan, and when he’s not in Washington, D.C., he makes his home in Cincinnati.