NGX week ahead: What 9M 2026 results say about share prices

A 2.86% rally in the last week raised the All-Share Index to a 1.23% gain for October, taking its return for the year to 63.42%.

Noted shares deserved about N165.11 trillion at month-end, approximately N2 trillion more than at the end of September.

The very first week of November reclaimed more than October had actually included. The index fell 2.13% in the week ended November 6, cleaning N3.52 trillion off the marketplace and bringing the year’s gain to 59.93%. Offering was extensive: 57 stocks fell and 29 increased.

The marketplace was still easily ahead for the year, however the turnaround provided financiers a factor to look once again at the rates they wanted to pay at the end of October.

The September results assistance describe which shares look much better worth after the sell-off. Amongst the big business evaluated, which represent almost 90% of the NGX’s worth, the clearest case was where share rates fell even as benefit from the primary organization grew.

Purchasers might pay less for a share in a business that was currently making more. Where earnings had actually fallen, a lower share cost used less convenience: if profits fell quicker than the rate, financiers might still be paying more for each N1 of revenue.

That is the difference worth viewing today. With the index still up almost 60% for the year, a stock can be well listed below its current high and still require a strong healing to validate its cost.

The September results assistance financiers see where more powerful revenues currently support the rate and where purchasers are still depending on much better outcomes to come.

Where the pullback provides financiers a review

MTN Nigeria is among the clearer cases. Its shares fell from N850 at the end of October to N837 on November 6, despite the fact that nine-month revenue increased 55%.

• Benefit from running business increased 38%, faster than sales. At Friday’s close, purchasers were paying about N12 for every single N1 of revenue MTN made over the previous year, compared to about N23 for Airtel Africa.
• Airtel runs throughout a number of markets, so the contrast has its limitations. MTN’s case is simple to see: a lower share rate came together with an enhancement in the service that was currently noticeable in the accounts.

Cement is a better call. HBM Nigeria fell 10% over the week and closed at about N15 for every single N1 of previous revenue, versus N18 for Dangote Cement and N19 for BUA Cement.

• HBM’s nine-month revenue grew about 31%, however its revenue in the 3rd quarter alone fell about 15%.

Financiers purchasing the dip are getting a lower cost than they were used a week previously. They still need to choose which figure much better explains business heading into year-end: the strong 9 months or the weaker quarter.

The exact same care is required with banks. The NGX Banking Index fell more than 10% in October, even as the broader market increased, and slipped once again in the very first week of November.

That offers financiers a factor to look once again at bank shares. The September results assistance discuss where the lower rates are most intriguing.

Gain access to Holdings deserves reviewing today due to the fact that financiers are paying less for approximately the exact same revenues per share.

The shares fell from N30.40 at the end of September to N26.90 on November 6, while nine-month incomes per share hardly moved, from N8.00 to N8.02 a year previously.

The lower cost might draw some purchasers back if selling in bank shares reduces.

Stanbic IBTC shares hardly fell in October and edged greater in the very first week of November. They still look low-cost versus previous revenue. The rate looks more persuading if the bank can duplicate more of that trading earnings or begin keeping more from interest.

Selective purchasing looks most likely than a broad rebound today. Gain access to has the clearest case to constant amongst the banks that fell in both durations. Stanbic has actually currently revealed it can hold up while the sector damages.

If purchasing reaches First HoldCo too, that would be a more powerful indication that self-confidence is returning beyond a couple of names.

Where the rate is currently relying on much better outcomes

The power stocks reveal the opposite of the marketplace. Transcorp Power leapt 23% to N219.60 in a week when most stocks that moved decreased.

The shares are still listed below where they began the year, however the rebound took the cost to about N21 for every single N1 of previous earnings, even as nine-month profits fell 17%.

The business pointed out gas supply issues and limitations on just how much electrical power it might send out to the grid. For purchasers at Friday’s rate, the case now rests more greatly on those restrictions alleviating, and the business offering more electrical energy.

Geregu Power’s rate did stagnate throughout the week, yet its most current outcomes made that the same rate harder to validate on current revenues.

• Transformer failures cut the quantity of electrical energy it might create, and nine-month earnings fell about 77%. At N825.70, financiers were paying about N257 for each N1 of revenue made over the previous year.
• Repair work might bring back output, however the evaluation will be simpler to safeguard when that output develops into sales and the business gathers the money.

When trading resumes, the very first thing to see is where purchasers return. Purchasing in business whose shares fell regardless of more powerful make money from their primary companies would recommend financiers are discovering worth in the pullback.

Purchasing that primarily raises business with diminishing earnings would recommend the marketplace is still ready to spend for a healing before it gets here.

An increasing index might conceal that distinction. The September results offer financiers a method to see it: begin with what business currently makes, then ask just how much better it requires to do for the rate to make good sense.