Goldman’s 2026 ‘Music in the Air’ Report Predicts Significant Industry Revenue Growth — But Not Necessarily for Labels, Which ‘Face a Structural Risk of Market Share Dilution’

Goldman Sachs’ 2026″Music in the Air “report is here, and while the complex breakdown is unsurprisingly bullish about the broader market’s income trajectory, it uses a visibly determined evaluation of the significant labels’long-lasting outlook.

For those who’ve been following Universal Music’s (and to a lower level Warner Music’s)share-price concerns, that position may not come as a surprise. While Goldman stays bullish about music’s total development potential customers– suggesting throughout tape-recorded, publishing, live, and more– its position differs considerably based upon the business type and sub-sector at hand.

Live music, for example, stands high as “among the greatest development stories in media,” according to the report, which is counting on continued growths through 2035. Excellent things are on the horizon for suppliers– though when it comes to the real “owners of music rights,” Goldman has actually acknowledged taking “a more selective method.”

“Broadly, we prefer suppliers of music and audio, in addition to live home entertainment companies, over owners of music rights, where we take a more selective technique,” Music in the Air 2026 define.

Keeping up the curious point, which apparently indicates those in business of making music remain in a precarious area relative to those generating income from stated music, DSPs have actually continued subscriber-growth and price-increase runway, the report shows.

That’s since of their buildouts in establishing markets, clampdowns on multi-user strategies, and the addition of brand-new functions (with audiobooks, AI-powered tools, Reserved, and high-fidelity audio pointed out in specific), per the text.

(We need not dive into the proposed multi-user money making method here, however the basic concept of charging “a modest charge” for each Family listener, not a flat rate each month for as much as 6 users, may show reliable. On the other hand, it may likewise sustain cancellations.)

Ad-supported streaming will discover a method to reverse years of not-great outcomes, and “middle-tiers in between complimentary and premium” might show reliable as well, according to Goldman.

What about AI? As lots of understand, there’s a fundamental degree of unpredictability related to evaluating the quickly progressing innovation at this early phase of the video game.

In brief, Goldman is anticipating near-term development (albeit with the possibility of long-lasting threats), approximating that “AI-related licensing, production tools, and brand-new money making chances have the prospective to drive ~ 10% benefit to Recorded Music profits by 2035,” the report checks out.

Bearing all these consider mind, Music in the Air 2026 expects a 5.9% substance yearly development rate for taped music earnings through 2035, to $56.1 billion. And this marks “the very first time because 2022” that Goldman has actually upped its tape-recorded projection.

That portion is a bit underneath CAGR “membership streaming rightsholder earnings” of 7.1% through 2035 however a little above the anticipated 5.8% CAGR for taped, publishing, and live alike.

Following the estimations to their sensible conclusion, at the crossway of anticipated income spikes and the combined outlook for labels themselves, the almost 100-page report devotes a great quantity of ink to checking out the viewed market-share dangers provided by gen AI.

“As Gen AI considerably reduces the barriers to entry for music production, record labels deal with a structural threat of market share dilution,” one area states. “The standard royalty payment design might be pushed as countless AI-generated tracks getting in the music streaming community divert a part of the royalty swimming pool far from human-created IP.”

Obviously, as in previous years, the forecasts must be taken with a grain of salt; a few of the underlying estimations benefit better examination, for something. And who understands exactly what the market and the more comprehensive home entertainment area will appear like in a year, not to mention a years from now?

Specifically due to the fact that it’s front and center in the report, the concept that market development will not always correspond with label development is worth keeping in mind moving forward.