FMDA projects N2.499 trillion money-market inflows as system liquidity falls 23.7%

Nigeria’s cash market is anticipated to get around N2.499 trillion in inflows throughout the week starting October 12, 2026, with developing Open Market Operations (OMO) expenses representing almost all the predicted funds, following a 23.68% decrease in banking system liquidity.

This is according to the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) weekly report dated October 12, 2026, which evaluated market advancements through October 9 and detailed anticipated inflows for the coming week.

The predicted inflows are 13.1% listed below the N2.877 trillion approximated for the preceding week, while banking system liquidity decreased to N3.71 trillion from roughly N4.86 trillion.

OMO Maturities control anticipated inflows:

OMO maturities are anticipated to supply N2.409 trillion throughout the week, representing around 96.4% of the predicted N2.499 trillion in overall money-market inflows. This is greater than the N2.168 trillion in OMO maturities tape-recorded in the preceding week.

• The boost in OMO maturities is balanced out by a considerable decrease in anticipated Treasury costs maturities, resulting in a lower general inflow forecast.
• Treasury expense maturities are predicted at N80.84 billion, compared to N705.73 billion in the previous week.
• Business bond voucher payments are anticipated to reach N4.33 billion, up from N2.82 billion.
• Business paper maturities are predicted at N4.49 billion, compared to N0.13 billion formerly.
• The previous week consisted of N10.09 billion in business bond maturities, while no such maturities are forecasted for today.

The N2.499 trillion forecast represents prospective gross liquidity injections from arranged maturities and payments, instead of a projection of the quantity that will eventually stay in the banking system.

CBN auctions drain pipes banking liquidity:

Banking system liquidity decreased 23.68% to N3.71 trillion in the week ended October 9, from roughly N4.86 trillion in the preceding week, representing a decrease of about N1.15 trillion.

• The decrease took place along with significant liquidity withdrawals through CBN Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions and Treasury costs issuance.
• The CBN offered N3.31 trillion in OMO instruments versus N2.17 trillion in maturities, suggesting net absorption of around N1.14 trillion.
• The Debt Management Office allocated N968.47 billion in Treasury expenses versus N705.73 billion in maturities, indicating net absorption of N262.74 billion.
• Together, the 2 operations suggest around N1.40 trillion in net withdrawals, although this does not equivalent the reported N1.15 trillion decrease in total system liquidity.

The typical Treasury costs yield increased 30 basis indicate 18.16%, while the typical Federal Government bond yield increased roughly 25 basis indicate 16.06%.

CBN choices form liquidity outlook:

The outlook for the week starting October 12 will depend mainly on how the CBN handles the N2.409 trillion in anticipated OMO maturities. Fresh OMO auctions might soak up part of the funds, restricting their influence on banking system liquidity and short-term rates of interest.

• FMDA had actually previously forecasted overall money-market inflows of N13.25 trillion for October, down 14.82% from N15.556 trillion in September.
• October OMO maturities were forecasted at N9.051 trillion, representing the biggest part of the regular monthly inflow projection.
• CBN OMO sales reached N17.51 trillion in September, showing the scale of liquidity management operations.
• If the CBN soaks up the majority of the anticipated maturities through fresh auctions, financing conditions might stay tight and short-term yields raised.

If a bigger percentage of the inflows stays within the banking system, liquidity conditions might enhance and short-term yields might alleviate.

The forecasted N2.499 trillion inflow for that reason supplies possible liquidity assistance, however the real result will depend upon subsequent financial operations and other market streams.