Consider this nightmare midterms scenario: Democrats whomp Republicans in the House of Representatives, as polling currently suggests they will.
But the race for Senate control is closer.
As counting in early November grinds on, it becomes clear that control of the Senate hinges on a few thousand votes in a single Senate race. Those votes are all that separates Congress from a 50/50 Senate in which Vice President JD Vance presides as a tiebreaker vote and a 51/49 Democrat majority.
What then? A given Senate candidate could refuse to concede, tapping into fraud allegations. Anyone who remembers 2020 will recall the baseless MAGA world conspiracy theories Trump allies boosted to try to delay the certification of that election. The same plan could lead to a lengthy fight over certifying key Senate races, with a Trumpified DOJ doing what it was prevented from doing in 2020: throwing its weight into the process, setting up a slow-moving fight over control of the body hinging around just one closely decided race. With a pre-emptive lawsuit targeting Alaska, the DOJ has shown its ready to go.
Each state has its own process for certification, governing how it canvasses and formalizes a given senator’s win in the state. The process covers disputes, including how officials are to respond to lawsuits, and which officials, in the end, have the authority to certify an election. In some states, these positions have been taken over by 2020 election deniers. In others, state legislatures have passed laws making it easier to file mass voter challenges. Activists have used these laws to challenge thousands of voters and ballots, raising concerns that those disqualified might exceed the margin of a victory or loss. Similarly, some states have cooperated with the DOJ in its effort to obtain each state’s voter roll, raising the prospect that the DOJ itself might challenge the vote. .
Once the outcome of a state’s election reaches the Senate, it has a series of procedures laid out to govern disputes. But, unlike the states, they’re not laid out in statute: the Senate largely decides these things through norms that have calcified over the centuries. States send their certificates of election to the vice president — so, JD Vance — and the Senate Rules Committee plays a role in deciding disputed elections.
Below, we break down the certification protocol in each state where Senate races are expected to be tight. We look at how states canvass the vote, making sure ballots are in and properly counted. We look at the process for certification. We look at who can challenge voters individually or en masse, and who can challenge state officials decisions. We look at what it takes to trigger a recount, and how that recount works.
We hope this helps you wrap your head around how things might unfold should Trump and his allies attempt to interfere, overturn or otherwise challenge election results next week.
Texas
Who’s in charge?
When experts fret about Republicans trying to overturn a 2026 election, they usually point to Texas. If Democrat James Talarico wins the Senate race, it’ll likely be by a very small margin, and the current attorney general, Ken Paxton (R) — not exactly known for his integrity — is Talarico’s Republican opponent. One of Paxton’s claims to fame is leading a (quickly tossed) lawsuit to challenge battleground state election certifications in 2020.
Certification-wise, local authorities (usually county commissioners) meet to conduct the canvass no later than 14 days after Election Day. No later than 24 hours after the local canvass, the county clerk must deliver the certified results — and a separate slate of certified returns for the gubernatorial race — to the secretary of state. For statewide races except the gubernatorial, the governor then conducts the state canvass and certification at a time set by the secretary of state — no earlier than 18 days after and no later than 33 days after Election Day. For the governor’s race, the results are canvassed by the state legislature and certified by the speaker of the House.
Completing the canvass, certification and recount processes are all mandatory duties of election officials, and can be enforced with a mandamus action in state court.
Still uneasy? You’re not alone. Since his attempted 2020 ratfuckery, Paxton has tried to get ballots tossed in Houston, lawfare Beto O’Rourke out of running in 2026 and indict the Travis County clerk. In addition, when the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals prevented him from expanding his power to prosecute election crimes, he helped get the recalcitrant judges ousted and replaced with those who acceded to him (He still hasn’t tested those powers, though, and many experts think they’d still be found to be unconstitutional.). He could also seek a court order to seize ballots, though they’d remain in the custody of the court.
Paxton’s office gives him unusual power to challenge the election, and he’s shown a willingness to cry (unsubstantiated) fraud and go after election officials before. But courts have proven adept at turning back his brand of lawsuits before, and experts generally express confidence that they’ll hold again.
Who can challenge?
In Texas, an automatic recount is only triggered in the case of a tie. The losing candidate in a race decided by a plurality vote may petition for a recount if the margin is less than 10% of the votes received by the winning candidate. The request must be submitted by 5 p.m. on the third business day after the initial canvass is complete, and begun either no later than the seventh day after the petition was approved or the day after all ballots have been delivered to the proper authorities (whichever is later).
A registered voter can challenge the qualifications of another voter in the same county by sworn statement. it is a felony to include intentionally misleading information, and the statement must be predicated on personal, first-hand information. There would then be a noticed hearing before the registrar.
Alaska
Who’s in charge?
Alaska certifies its elections via a state review board, based in Juneau. The official who actually certifies the result, however, is the director of the state’s Division of Elections, an agency housed within the office of the Lieutenant Governor. This time around, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom will oversee the process alongside Division of Elections Director Carol Beecher, a Republican, who tried in 2023 to remove the state from a non-partisan voter roll maintenance system. As you may have guessed, Beecher found a reason to try: election denial conspiracy theories about the system, the Electronic Registration Information Center, known as ERIC. Beecher’s efforts ultimately failed – Alaska stayed in ERIC.
Who can challenge?
The state pays for a recount if the margin is 0.5 percent or less; appeals after a recount go to the state Supreme Court. Contesting an election over fraud allegations works differently: in that case, a candidate has to prove, in state court, fraud large enough to change the result. There’s no process under Alaska law that allows for mass challenges to votes. Instead, individual election officials and poll watchers can challenge voters that they believe to be unqualified.
Elections Director Beecher’s aggressive effort to purge the state’s voter rolls before the midterms has resulted in controversy that’s reached from the state to Washington. After the state DMV sent a list of 3,000 people who might not be eligible to vote, Beecher removed them all. More than 600 people were wrongly removed, she later told state lawmakers. Beecher also gave the DOJ an unredacted version of the state’s voter rolls last year, prompting as-yet-unrealized concerns that the DOJ may use the information to try to block people from voting.
Trump has already ordered the feds to try to interfere in the state’s certification. In October, the DOJ sued to block the state from certifying its election if Mary Peltola wins; the lawsuit is widely expected to go nowhere, though it signals that the DOJ is ready to try to intervene.
Kansas
Who’s in charge?
A State Board of Canvassers certifies the race. In Kansas, it’s composed of Governor Laura Kelly (D), Secretary of State Scott Schwab (R), and the state Attorney General, Kris Kobach (R), a staunch trump ally and longtime proponent of restrictions on who can vote.
Who can challenge?
Recounts are available under state law if the margin if 0.5 percent or less; a candidate projected to lose funds their own if the margin is larger.
The state doesn’t allow mass challenges to voter eligibility or votes themselves. The duty falls instead on individual election judges.
For Kansas, the risk of mass disenfranchisement mostly comes through attempts to remove large groups of voters from the state’s election lists. This has developed most dramatically through the debate this year over the “SAVE Kansas Act.” Enacted over Gov. Kelly’s veto, the law bars nonprofits from conducting online voter registration drives, a cop to one strain of voter fraud conspiracy theory that blossomed after the 2020 election. It also checks the state’s voter rolls against DMV data and immigration status via the federal SAVE database, while removing people who don’t vote for four years and fail to respond to a notice. The law’s passage has prompted concerns from the ACLU that it could result in naturalized citizens being removed from voter rolls along with other categories of people.
Ohio
Who’s in charge?
County boards of elections begin the official canvas 4 days after Election Day. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) then certifies the results.
Ohio’s Republican leadership, particularly LaRose, routinely engage in what we’d call old-school voter suppression: making it harder to pass citizen-initiated ballot referenda, changing the composition of the state Supreme Court when it thwarted Republican gerrymanders, etc. Not having been a true battleground state (until maybe this year), the election denialism stuff has been more on the margins. LaRose referred more than 1,000 cases of alleged voter fraud to the Trump DOJ last year, and willingly handed over the state’s voter rolls complete with sensitive and private information. There is an ongoing lawsuit in Ohio over new proof of citizenship requirements for voters who register at the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. Ohio is also one of at least 16 states that handed over its voter rolls to the Trump administration.
Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is a pre-Trump, establishment Republican, while LaRose has become progressively more MAGA, particularly for his failed Senate bid to take on Sherrod Brown this year (he is now running for state auditor instead). Legislators have ensured that the state Supreme Court is now solidly right-wing.
Who can challenge?
In Ohio, an automatic recount is triggered if the margin is less than or equal to .25%, and it must be completed within 10 days of being ordered. Any candidate that receives votes can request a recount within 5 days of the results being declared, but takes on the financial burden (except if the recount changes the election outcome/if any precinct changes by 4% or more, the requester is refunded the cost of recounting that precinct). Candidates can request partial recounts.
Only precinct election officials — poll workers — in Ohio can challenge a voter on Election Day. Even if the voter is found to be ineligible by a majority of precinct officials, she still casts a provisional ballot.
Iowa
Who’s in charge?
Iowa’s federal and statewide elections are partially overseen by Governor Kim Reynolds, a close Trump ally and election denier who holds an automatic position on the state canvassing board. In addition to the governor, the elected officials involved in certification include the secretary of state, the state auditor, the treasurer and the agriculture secretary. Reynolds refused to acknowledge Trump’s 2020 loss and said people believed the election was “not valid.”One Democrat, State Auditor Rob Sand, sits on the body, as do other Republicans who have not promoted the Big Lie.
Who can challenge?
Iowa law allows a candidate to contest an election based on a number of factors, including allegations of fraud by election officials, that illegal votes accepted, or that legal votes rejected at the polls. A candidate for governor has 30 days to contest the results. Governors’ race challenges are decided by a joint committee established by the state legislature.
Voters in Iowa are allowed to challenge the validity of another’s voter registration before and on Election Day (even at the polling place) based on several factors including allegations of noncitizenship or falsified registration address. Zealous state residents have taken advantage of the ability. In Linn County, four people were behind 495 voter challenges filed in 2026 as of late August.
Iowa is one of at least 16 states that acquiesced to the Trump DOJ’s’s demand for sensitive voter data, meaning the DOJ already has information on the state’s voter roll, which Republican Secretary of State Paul D. Pate turned over when asked. Paul, however, has has actively worked to debunk disinformation and election conspiracy theories.
Michigan
Who’s in charge?
Michigan’s elections are governed by a board that must be bipartisan by law, the members of which are appointed by the governor with input from the state Senate. The board’s Republican chair has publicly lamented that conspiracy theories about the security of U.S. elections “are going to ruin democracy,” and affirmed that President Trump lost the 2020 election in Michigan.
Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson acts as chief election officer.
Michigan has a super-decentralized system of election administration that relies on more than 1,600 county, city and township-level election officials who manage elections and ballot counting.
Who can challenge?
Candidates for office can request a recount if they believe administrative error or election fraud interfered with the results of their election under Michigan state law. If two of four members from opposite parties on the state board of canvassers, which certifies statewide and federal elections, suspects fraud in an election, the issue is referred to the state attorney general.
Any registered voter of a specific jurisdiction can challenge the registration of another in that same jurisdiction via sworn statement, but people who submit challenges “indiscriminately and without good cause” could face misdemeanor charges, per state law.
Georgia
Who’s in charge?
Trump’s infamous and unsuccessful pressure campaign against now-outgoing Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2020 highlights how important a single person can be to upholding democracy in the state. It’s pretty unclear whether the Republican Secretary of State candidate running to replace Raffensperger would stand up to Trump in the event he tries to steal another election. Further down the chain, county-level boards have become a battleground over election certification, with some being infiltrated by members of organized election denialist efforts. A superior court judge and an appeals court have ruled that county election boards must certify elections under deadlines imposed in Georgia state law. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported in 2024 that at least 19 members of Georgia election boards across nine counties had rejected certifying elections since 2020. Challenges are decided by the state’s courts.
Three of the five members of the Georgia State Election Board, along with the board’s executive director, are also election deniers. While that board doesn’t certify elections, it enacts and enforces election rules. Before the 2024 election, the board approved new rules that gave it greater authority to delay certification.
Who can challenge?
A candidate or voter who cast a ballot can challenge the outcome of that election under Georgia law. Elections can be contested on suspicion of fraud or error. Challengers have five days after an election is certified to file their challenge with the county Superior Court and a select judge will preside over the contest. Georgia election law is complex. A candidate can request a recount up to two days after an election is certified when the vote margin is no greater than 0.5% and to be completed within 17 days of the recount request. For elections suspected of fraud that use a paper ballot, county superintendents, political parties or candidates can request a recount. For elections that use electronic voting, superintendents, candidates, and groups of at least three voters within the county can request recounts. Requests can also be made by a candidate directly to the Secretary of State, and are conducted at the Secretary of State’s discretion. Such recounts must be conducted prior to the legal deadline for election certification. Further litigation of alleged election fraud is decided by the Superior Court, and appeals referred directly to the Georgia Supreme Court.
One person can challenge voter eligibility an unlimited number of times in their own county before or on Election Day based on things like citizenship status, residence, and felony convictions. In Chatham County, one person challenged the eligibility of almost 900 people.
Minnesota
Who’s in charge?
In Minnesota, a panel of senior officials certify the vote via a State Canvassing Board. The body is composed of the Secretary of State, two justices of the state supreme court, and two lower level district judges. Certification is rendered conditional if a lawsuit is filed contesting the results.
Who can challenge?
Recounts aren’t automatic; candidates can request one, with the state paying, if the margin is within 0.25 percent.
State law blocks the kind of mass challenges that other states allow. Instead, individual petitions have to be filed challenging a voter’s registration. More challenges can take place at polling precincts. There, Minnesota residents can file forms challenging voters — the dispute is decided by an election judge.
The state has successfully fended off the DOJ’s attempt to gain access to its full, unredacted list of voter data. Its win over the administration in court marked the DOJ’s 23rd straight loss on that count. Some concerns persist. A recent lawsuit alleged that DHS managed to obtain much of the data, and is sharing it within the federal government in violation of the law.
North Carolina
Who’s in charge?
North Carolina “state law has long established that officials have a mandatory, nondiscretionary duty to certify elections,” according to a recent report by several nonprofits focused on election law.
In North Carolina, the secretary of state does not oversee the state’s elections. Instead the North Carolina State Board of Elections (NCSBE) is the state agency charged with the administration of the elections process and compliance.
The NCSBE is an independent state agency that works in conjunction with the state’s 100 county boards of elections. The board is currently made up of five board members — three Republicans and two Democrats. Potential members are nominated by the state party chairs and the state auditor appoints the members from those list of nominees. That state board is not allowed to have more than three people affiliated with the same party.
The State Board of Elections must meet by the Tuesday three weeks after Election Day — Nov. 24, 2026 — to complete the canvass for nonlocal elections and “authenticate the count in every ballot item in the county by determining that the votes have been counted and tabulated correctly,” according to North Carolina legislation. If for some reason, the state board has not received the county canvasses by Nov. 24, “the State Board may adjourn for not more than 10 days to secure the missing abstracts.”
Six days after the completion of the canvass — if there are no pending election protests — the state board must issue a certificate of election and provide a copy to the secretary of state.
Who can challenge?
But following Election Day there may be election protests. For a statewide election, the state board must order a mandatory recount if a candidate requests it and the difference between the votes are not more than half a percent of the votes or 10,000 votes (whichever is less). A request for a mandatory state recount must be made in writing to the state board by noon on the second business day after the county canvass.
North Carolina also allows private individuals to challenge another person’s eligibility to vote. But state law presumes a voter’s eligibility and the burden is on the challenger to prove the voter is ineligible. Any challenges to a voter’s registration or absentee ballot has to be made in writing and signed under penalty of perjury by a voter registered in that county.
If there are election protests, the certificate of election must be issued 10 days after the state board’s final decision on an election protest — “unless the state board orders a new election or the Superior Court of Wake County orders a stay of the certification pending an appeal of the protest.”
New Hampshire
Who’s in charge?
After all absentee ballots have been processed and after the polls are closed, election officials — under supervision of the moderator — immediately begin counting the votes. After the tabulation of votes is completed, and the results are announced by the moderator, the town or ward clerk will prepare the election return and submit the election return form to the Secretary of State David Scanlan. Once the secretary of state receives all the returns, he will review and total the votes and declare the winners of the election.
Following that — after the time for any recount or appeal has expired or when all candidates waived, in writing, a recount or appeal — Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) will issue certificates of election to members of the United States Congress, according to the state law. And the secretary of state will issue certificates of election to state senators, state representatives and county officers.
Who can challenge?
A voter voting in any state election may be challenged by any other voter registered in the town or ward in which the election is held, an election official, a challenger appointed by a political committee or a challenger appointed by the attorney general, according to state legislature.
The challenger has to submit a written challenge to the official presiding over the polling place in question. The official then determines whether the challenge is well grounded. The state statute requires a signed affidavit under oath and that the challenger in question has to have personal knowledge or another basis for probable cause for the challenge. The challenge cannot rest solely on a vague suspicion. Before making a decision, the official has to give the challenged voter an opportunity to push back on the allegations.
If the official “determines that it is more likely than not that the challenge is well grounded,” the official does not receive the voter’s ballot, according to state law. If the challenge is not well grounded, the voter must be allowed to vote. If the voter disagrees with the official’s decision they can seek immediate review in the New Hampshire Superior Court.
Under New Hampshire law, any candidate in a state general election may request a recount if the vote difference between them and the winning candidate is less than 20% of the total ballots cast. The request has to be made in writing to the secretary of state by the Friday after Election Day.
South Carolina
Who’s in charge?
In South Carolina, the Board of State Canvassers certifies the election. The members of the State Election Commission (SEC) serve as the state board of canvassers after elections to certify election returns, to declare candidates elected and to hear protests and appeals. The SEC has five commission members. At least one has to be a member of the majority political party and at least one has to be a member of the largest minority political party represented in the general assembly.
The Board of State Canvassers must convene within 10 days of Election Day — Nov. 12 — to canvass votes, certify results and order any necessary recounts. The board can continue to meet on a day-to-day basis for up to 15 days to complete their responsibilities — including declaring which candidates have been elected and the certified vote totals, according to the state legislature. The certified results are then delivered to the secretary of state.
Who can challenge?
An eligible voter or qualified watcher may challenge the eligibility of a voter if they suspect they are not qualified to vote. If the challenge is coming from an individual, they must direct their challenge to an election manager. The manager then presents the challenge to the voter in question.
The election manager has to explain the qualifications for voting and can question the individual about their eligibility. But if the voter maintains they are qualified while the challenge stands, the voter must be allowed to cast a provisional ballot. That ballot will be handled separately and cannot be included in the initial count of regular ballots. The ballot will be turned over to the board of voter registration and elections or the election authority that has supervision of the election to be reviewed at the legally scheduled meeting. If no one provides evidence to support the challenge, the ballot will be counted. If evidence is presented, it will be reviewed and a final decision on the ballot will be made by the authority.
A voter eligibility challenge must happen before the voter in question deposits a paper ballot or casts their vote on a voting machine. For absentee ballots, challenges must be made before the return envelopes are opened and the ballot envelopes are removed.
Separately, a recount is generally required when the difference between two candidates is no more than 1% of the total votes cast for that office — unless the candidates waive the recount.
The board of state canvassers can also act “in an appellate judicial capacity” if election disputes arise. Any election dispute or protest has to be submitted in writing to the board before the deadline, which is noon five days following the canvassing of the votes.
The board, in its judicial capacity, can hold hearings where candidates, alongside legal counsel, may present evidence, examine and cross-examine witnesses. The board then decides on the issue at hand by a majority vote and certifies the election results.
Those decisions can usually be appealed to the South Carolina Supreme Court with a priority consideration.
Nebraska
Who’s in charge?
Following the completion of the canvass by the county canvassing board, an abstract of votes for all officers should be delivered to the current Secretary of State Robert Evnen, according to Nebraska statute.
Evnen has previously pushed back against allegations of election fraud and irregularities during the 2020 election. In an interview, Evnan even said he sees “no justification” for a full, forensic audit or a hand recount of the 2020 election results in Nebraska.
A state board of state canvassers — made up of the governor, secretary of state, auditor of public accounts, state treasurer and attorney general — then meet on the fourth Monday after the election to canvass the votes cast. The board can continue to meet until all returns are received and all votes are tabulated. The board’s job is to use abstracts they received from counties to determine which of the candidates has been elected.
This group, made up entirely of Republicans, does not under state law have the ability to question the results.
“The duty of the board of state canvassers to canvass the votes is ministerial in nature,” according to the Nebraska statute.
Within 40 days after Election Day, the secretary of state has to prepare and deliver a certificate of election to the “person who meets the constitutional and statutory requirements of office and whom the board of state canvassers or Legislature has declared to have received the highest vote for such office or position in the statewide primary or general election,” according to the Nebraska statute.
The certificate has to be signed by the governor and countersigned by the secretary of state.
Who can challenge?
In Nebraska, an election inspector, judge, clerk or any registered voter can challenge a person’s eligibility to vote even if they are registered to vote. A challenge, essentially, triggers a formal process. Once a challenge is made, the voter in question — in the presence of an inspector or a judge of election — has to write their name, address and signature under an oath that reads: “I do solemnly swear that I will fully and truly answer all such questions put to me related to my place of residence and qualifications as a registered voter at this election.”
The challenged voter will then have to answer questions from an election official about their residence as well as qualifications to vote in that election. The official may ask additional questions to assess eligibility. If the voter complies and meets the eligibility standards — including age and citizenship — they must be allowed to vote.
A candidate who was not elected can request a recount if the margin of defeat falls within the threshold established by the statue. The written request has to be submitted no later than the third day after the county canvassing board or state canvassing board concludes its canvass.
Maine
Who’s in charge?
Certification in Maine is straightforward: Within two business days after the election, the county clerks file an attested copy of the election returns with the secretary of state’s office. Within 20 days after the election, the secretary of state compiles and certifies the returns, and gives them to the governor.
Who can challenge?
There are no automatic or partial recounts in the state, and a candidate has to request a recount within 5 business days of the election. If the margin is up to 1% of the total votes or fewer than 1,000 votes, whichever is less, the state pays. If the gap is bigger than that, the requester has to pay in full (unless the recount changes the result). Any candidate running can initiate a recount.
A voter or election official can also challenge the qualifications of another voter in the same municipality. The ballot in question is marked, and a hearing is held after the election to confirm the challenged voter’s qualifications.
The primary players in Maine’s certification and recount processes are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and Governor Janet Mills, both Democrats. The state, like many of its blue peers, was sued by the Trump Justice Department to compel the release of its voter rolls. That case was dismissed quickly by a federal district court judge, who called the government’s arguments “half-hearted.”
Correction: This post misstated a detail of Ken Paxton’s campaign against state judges who opposed him and has been updated. TPM regrets the error.
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